Is the Nuclear Threat Over?

Biological and Chemical THREATS

Aggressive nations that are too poor to develop nuclear arsenals may turn to medium-range missiles armed with poison gas or with biological weapons. These have been dubbed the poor man's nukes. In fact, many analysts fear that such devices may also become the weapons of choice for terrorist groups.

However, biological and chemical weapons can wreak havoc even without a high-tech delivery system. U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen said in November 1997: "With advanced technology and a smaller world of porous borders, the ability to unleash mass sickness, death, and destruction today has reached a far greater order of magnitude. A lone madman or nest of fanatics with a bottle of chemicals, a batch of plague-inducing bacteria, or a crude nuclear bomb can threaten or kill tens of thousands of people in a single act of malevolence." Such fears were proved valid when cult terrorists used sarin, a nerve agent, to attack commuters in the Tokyo subway system in March 1995. Twelve people were killed, and 5,500 were injured.

Law-enforcement authorities fear that chemical and biological weapons could easily be used by terrorists

"If a chemical attack is frightening, a biological weapon poses a worse nightmare," notes professor of political science Leonard Cole. "Chemical agents are inanimate, but bacteria, viruses and other live agents may be contagious and reproductive. If they become established in the environment, they may multiply. Unlike any other weapon, they can become more dangerous over time."

In an effort to curb the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons, the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention and the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention have been implemented. The Economist notes, however, that despite such good intentions, "no arms-control regime is perfect. . . . They cannot pick up every transgression." The same source remarks: "And, of course, the real cheats are unlikely to sign up anyway."

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